France Lead the Board, Messi Retakes the Golden Boot
Available in USEight teams left, one clear outright favourite. **France (2.80)** are the only side priced under 4.00. In the Golden Boot market the story just turned — **Lionel Messi (2.20)** is now both **sole leader on 8 goals** and the outright favourite, edging ahead of Mbappé.
With the quarter-finals about to start, the 2026 World Cup outright and Golden Boot boards have settled into shape. France are the lone favourite under 4.00; the Golden Boot has flipped to Messi. Here are the full markets in decimal odds — every price a range across books, so shop before you back.
Outright winner — the final eight
| Team | Winner odds | Cross-book range |
|---|---|---|
| France | 2.80 | 2.75–2.88 |
| Spain | 4.70 | 4.50–4.70 |
| Argentina | 4.90 | 4.00–5.00 |
| England | 5.60 | 5.00–5.70 |
| Norway | 15.00 | — |
| Morocco | 28.00 | — |
| Belgium | 31.00 | — |
| Switzerland | 34.00 | — |
Decimal odds, FanDuel via FOX Sports, as of 8 Jul 2026 11:29 ET. France are the clear favourite in every book — the only side under 4.00.
The book-to-book quirk: Argentina v England
| Book | Argentina | England |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 4.90 | 5.60 |
| ESPN | 5.00 | 5.70 |
| UK books | as short as 4.00 | — |
Argentina and England swap 3rd–4th spot by book. UK books rate Argentina as short as 4.00 — ahead of Spain — after the 3-2 R16 comeback over Egypt. Aussie punters: the value on Argentina depends on where you look.
Biggest movers
| Market | Move | Why |
|---|---|---|
| France | ~6.00 → 2.80 | Tournament-long firming; perfect 6/6, meanest attack-to-defence balance |
| Argentina | ~+4500 in-play → 4.90 | Sharp shortening after the 3-2 R16 comeback vs Egypt |
| Spain | ~5.50 → 4.70 | Tournament-long move; four straight clean sheets |
Quarter-final 1X2 lines are effectively opening prices, so there’s no clean 24-hour outright shift — these are multi-day moves off results.
Golden Boot — the flip to Messi
| Player | Golden Boot odds | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi (Argentina) | 2.20 | 8 |
| Kylian Mbappé (France) | 2.40 | 7 |
| Erling Haaland (Norway) | 8.50 | 7 |
| Harry Kane (England) | 10.00 | 6 |
Decimal odds, CBS Sports, 8 Jul 2026. Messi scored against Egypt (7 Jul) to move to 8 and retake both the lead and favouritism. Since no matches were played 8–9 July, these prices are current, not stale.
The read: Messi is the sole leader and favourite, but Mbappé at 2.40 is priced close despite trailing by one — France’s route (four possible knockout games as favourites) gives him volume. Haaland (7 goals, 8.50) is the each-way play if Norway keep winning.
- France 2.80 — the only side under 4.00 and clear favourite in every book.
- Spain 4.70, Argentina 4.90, England 5.60 chase; Argentina/England swap 3rd–4th by book (UK books rate ARG as short as 4.00).
- Golden Boot flipped to Messi (2.20) — sole leader on 8 after scoring vs Egypt.
- Mbappé 2.40 priced close on 7; Haaland (8.50, 7 goals) the each-way angle.
- Prices are current — no matches 8–9 July.
More: the quarter-finals overview, the Golden Boot race feature and the 9 July tips.
