Semi-Final Odds & Predictions — The Final Four, Priced

Updated July 2026
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Four teams, two ties, one clear favourite. **France (2.35-2.50)** head the outright board; **Spain, England and Argentina** are bunched behind and the books can’t agree on the order. Here are both semi-final 1X2 markets and the outright, in decimal, for Aussie punters.

The 2026 World Cup is down to its first-ever all top-four ranked final four: France, Spain, England and Argentina. SF1 is France v Spain (the "final before the final"); SF2 is the charged England v Argentina renewal. France stay the outright favourite; behind them the market is a genuine three-way muddle. Here’s the full picture in decimal odds.

A World Cup trophy silhouette in front of a glowing odds board showing four descending bars
The final four, priced: France clear at the top, three sides bunched behind. Image: illustrative.

Both semi-finals at a glance (AEST)

SF Fixture Date (ET) AEST kickoff Venue
SF1 France v Spain Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 Wed 15 Jul, 05:00 AEST AT&T Stadium, Arlington/Dallas
SF2 England v Argentina Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 Thu 16 Jul, 05:00 AEST Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

AEST = ET + 14 h. Both on SBS / SBS On Demand in Australia. Source: FOX / Yahoo / FIFA schedule, 12 Jul 2026.

Outright winner — the final four

Team Winner odds Cross-book range
France 2.35-2.50 ESPN 2.35 / FanDuel 2.40 / FOX 2.50
Spain 4.30-5.10 FanDuel 4.30 / ESPN 5.10
England 4.10-5.90 FanDuel 4.10 / ESPN 5.90
Argentina 5.00-5.20 FanDuel 5.00 / ESPN 5.20

Decimal odds, ESPN / FanDuel via FOX, as of 12-13 Jul 2026 AM. France are the only side under 4.00 in every book.

The book split — who’s really 2nd favourite?

Book 2nd 3rd 4th
ESPN Spain 5.10 Argentina 5.20 England 5.90
FanDuel England 4.10 Spain 4.30 Argentina 5.00

The books flatly disagree behind France. FanDuel makes England its 2nd favourite (4.10) after the Norway win; ESPN still rates Spain ahead. For Aussie punters, that means the value on England v Spain depends entirely on where you look — shop the price.

SF1 — France v Spain (1X2, decimal)

Selection Odds
France 2.35
Draw 3.20
Spain 3.20

ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN betting, as of 13 Jul 2026 AM. France favourites; Spain and the draw level. To-advance: France -148, Spain +120.

The read: France are the most complete side left — 16 scored, 2 conceded, three knockout clean sheets — but they’re managing Tchouameni (thigh) and a fresh Mbappe ankle knock. Spain are unbeaten in 36, one short of Argentina’s all-time record, yet just lost their tournament-long shutout to Belgium. This is control v control; back France to advance or lean the draw/Under.

SF2 — England v Argentina (1X2, decimal)

Selection Odds
England 2.60
Draw 2.90
Argentina 3.10

ESPN / FanDuel via ESPN betting, as of 13 Jul 2026 AM. The tighter tie — the three-way spread is compressed. To-advance: England -130, Argentina +106.

The read: The compressed spread tells the story — SF2 is rated the closer of the two. England are without the suspended Quansah; Argentina carry Messi’s form but have played 60 extra minutes across two extra-time ties. Kane has never scored against Argentina; Messi has never faced England competitively.

Golden Boot — still live for three of the four

Player Golden Boot odds Goals
Kylian Mbappe (France) favourite (~2.0-2.2) 8
Lionel Messi (Argentina) 2nd fav (~2.5) 8
Jude Bellingham (England) 14.00 6
Harry Kane (England) shop the line 6

Golden Boot odds, FOX / Goal.com trackers, as of 12-13 Jul 2026. Mbappe and Messi are level on 8 (Mbappe favourite on the assists tie-break); Haaland’s 7 is frozen — Norway are out.

Boomerang Bet
Semi-final 1X2, to-reach-the-final and outright markets in AUD — France ~2.35, plus SF match specials.
Betibet
Outright value board in AUD — England and Argentina at 4.10-5.90 / 5.00-5.20 as the roughies behind France and Spain.
Zotabet
Golden Boot each-way and player props in AUD — Mbappe, Messi, Bellingham and Kane all priced.
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  • France 2.35-2.50 — the only side under 4.00 and clear outright favourite.
  • Spain, England, Argentina bunched — books split on the order (FanDuel: England 2nd at 4.10; ESPN: Spain 2nd).
  • SF1 France v Spain: France 2.35, draw and Spain both 3.20.
  • SF2 England v Argentina: the tighter tie — England 2.60, draw 2.90, Argentina 3.10.
  • Golden Boot: Mbappe and Messi level on 8; Mbappe favourite on assists.
Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup?
France at 2.35-2.50 (13 Jul) — the only remaining side priced under 4.00 and the clear favourite in every book.
What are the semi-final odds?
SF1 France v Spain: France 2.35, draw 3.20, Spain 3.20. SF2 England v Argentina: England 2.60, draw 2.90, Argentina 3.10 — the tighter of the two ties.
Why are the 2nd-favourite odds so different across books?
The books disagree behind France: FanDuel makes England 2nd favourite (4.10) after the Norway win, while ESPN rates Spain ahead (5.10). Argentina sit 5.00-5.20. Shop the price before backing.
When are the semi-finals in Australia?
France v Spain kicks off 05:00 AEST Wednesday 15 July and England v Argentina 05:00 AEST Thursday 16 July (both 15:00 ET). Live on SBS.

More: the France v Spain preview, the England v Argentina preview, the 11 July recap and the live odds tracker.