World Cup Tips — Tuesday 30 June (AEST)
Available in USThree Round of 32 ties play out across Tuesday AEST: Brazil v Japan at 3 AM, Germany v Paraguay at 6:30 AM and Netherlands v Morocco at 11 AM. Picks, prices and the watch guide below.
The knockout rounds keep rolling. Three R32 ties land across Tuesday in Australia — one before sunrise, one over breakfast, one mid-morning — all live and free on SBS. Here are the prices, the angle and our picks for each.
The card at a glance
| Match | Decimal (1 / X / 2) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil v Japan | 1.70 / 3.71 / 5.31 | Brazil to win, Vinícius Jr anytime |
| Germany v Paraguay | 1.35 / 5.08 / 8.89 | Germany −1 line / over 2.5 goals |
| Netherlands v Morocco | 2.24 / 3.09 / 3.54 | Tightest tie of the day; lean Morocco DNB |
1X2 decimal odds, source: odds1x2.com (avg of Bet365 / Spreadex / 888sport / Megapari), as of 29 Jun 2026. Implied probability before margin.
Brazil v Japan — 3:00 AM AEST
Brazil topped Group C with two wins and a draw; Vinícius Júnior scored in all three group games (and posted a 3.06 xG against Scotland, a record single-player WC xG). Japan finished 2nd in Group F unbeaten — but the headline is the revenge subplot: Japan beat this Brazil side 3–2 in October 2025 after trailing 2–0 with 20 minutes left.
Our pick: Brazil-win is fair at 1.70 but the smarter ticket is Vinícius Jr anytime scorer — a man on a tournament-defining run against a Japan side averaging 0.50 GA/game.
Germany v Paraguay — 6:30 AM AEST
Germany won Group E (7–1 Curaçao, 2–1 Côte d’Ivoire, lost 2–1 to Ecuador) and have nine group goals to their name. Paraguay arrive as a best-third qualifier (4 pts) after a 0–0 with Australia in MD3. Opta’s supercomputer rates Germany 54.7% to win, Paraguay 23.1%.
Our pick: the Paraguay line is generous at 8.89 but the value sits on Germany −1 handicap (line betting) or over 2.5 goals — Germany have scored freely and Paraguay tightened up in their group draws rather than via shutouts.
Netherlands v Morocco — 11:00 AM AEST
The tightest market of the day. Netherlands topped Group F (7 pts, +6) but failed to record a clean sheet; Morocco won 4 of their last 6 with 3 clean sheets. Opta rates Netherlands 47.6%, Morocco 25.0%.
"I’m not sure if we are the favourite in the match against Morocco." — Ronald Koeman, Netherlands head coach (The National, 26 Jun 2026)
Our pick: the 3.54 on Morocco prices a serious shot at a giant-killing. Morocco draw-no-bet (line betting / DNB) is the smarter expression — Saïbari was the group-stage standout and the Atlas Lions defend a lead as well as any side left.
- Three R32 ties — all live and free on SBS / SBS On Demand.
- Best straight pick: Brazil to win (1.70) and Vinícius Jr anytime.
- Best line bet: Germany −1 vs Paraguay (or over 2.5 goals).
- Best longshot: Morocco DNB — Koeman has named them as the threat.
More: latest outright winner odds, the Predictions hub, the full knockout bracket, the Group F guide and the Netherlands, Brazil and Germany profiles.
