World Cup Tips — Monday’s R16 Double

Brazil (1.80) are favourites against a Norway side they have never beaten; England (2.35) tackle Mexico’s altitude fortress at the Azteca. Two R16 ties, two Monday-morning AEST kickoffs, both live and free on SBS.

The Round of 16 rolls into day two with a proper double-header for the early risers. Brazil face Norway at MetLife — Haaland’s World Cup bow against Ancelotti’s Seleção — and Mexico host England at the thin-air Estadio Azteca, where no visiting side has ever won a World Cup match. Here are the prices, the team news and our pick for each.

The card at a glance

1X2 decimal odds, source: FanDuel via SportsLine/CBS, 5 Jul 2026. Implied probability before margin.

Brazil v Norway — 6:00 AM AEST

Brazil are 1.80 favourites, but the H2H should make punters pause: across four meetings, Norway are unbeaten (2W 2D) — Brazil have never beaten them, most famously the 2-1 Norway win at France ’98. This is also Norway’s first World Cup in 28 years, and Erling Haaland arrives on 5 goals for the tournament on his WC debut. Opta still leans Brazil (~53.6% regulation win), and Vinícius Júnior leads the Seleção scoring on 4.

Our pick: Brazil win + both teams to score. Norway have kept no clean sheets across their last six and have shipped 10 goals in that run, but Haaland gives them a puncher’s chance at one end. Back Brazil’s quality to win a game with goals in it rather than laying the short "to nil".

Mexico v England — 10:00 AM AEST

The tie of the day, and the venue is the story. The Estadio Azteca sits at ~2,240 m, and no visiting team has ever won a World Cup match there. Mexico are 4W-0D at this tournament and yet to concede — one more clean sheet would make them only the second side ever (after Italy 1990) to keep clean sheets in their first five World Cup games. England arrive on the back of a 2-1 R32 win over DR Congo (Kane brace) but must handle the altitude on three days’ rest.

"The altitude will be a big disadvantage because we cannot physically adapt to it." — Thomas Tuchel, England head coach (ESPN, 5 Jul 2026)

Our pick: England win or draw (double chance) at 2.35-ish value on the win alone. The altitude and the Azteca aura make a Mexican clean sheet very live, so the outright England win carries real risk; the double chance is the safer expression. If you want the value single, England 2.35 is fair given the gulf in tournament pedigree — but respect the venue.

Next: our full Brazil v Norway preview and Mexico v England preview, the 4 July recap, the live winner odds board and the knockout bracket.