England v DR Congo — Top of the Bracket v First-Time Knockouts
Available in USEngland (1.26) and Tuchel’s unbeaten run meet DR Congo’s first-ever World Cup knockout tie at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. 2:00 AM AEST Thursday 2 July — live and free on SBS.
Tuchel has not lost a competitive game since taking the England job. W10 D1 in 11, 7 points at the top of Group L, and now a Round of 32 tie against a DR Congo side playing in their first-ever World Cup knockout match. The price (England 1.26) is short but deserved; the value sits in the manner of victory and in Kane adding to his goal record. Here is the preview, the prices, the team news and our pick.
| Outcome | Decimal | Implied | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1.26 | 79.4% | Heavy favourite; Tuchel unbeaten in 11 |
| Draw | 5.40 | 18.5% | Long-priced draw — typical of a one-sided knockout |
| DR Congo | 14.00 | 7.1% | Longest-priced R32 outsider; first WC KO match |
England’s team news
| Player | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Reece James | OUT — hamstring (picked up v Ghana) | Sports Mole + Goal + ESPN + Al Jazeera |
| Tino Livramento | OUT — tournament (ruled out eve of opener) | ESPN + Sports Mole |
| Jarell Quansah | DOUBTFUL — ankle (went off v Panama) | Sports Mole |
| Declan Rice | Back in contention — recovered (calf + neural pain) | Goal + Sports Mole |
Injury status, source: Sports Mole / Goal / ESPN, 30 Jun 2026. Per FIFA rules, group-stage yellow cards are wiped before the knockouts — England have no suspension risk in the R32.
The headline move: Djed Spence starts at right-back in place of James. Quansah’s potential absence may bring Ezri Konsa or Marc Guéhi into the centre-back pairing.
DR Congo’s mountain to climb
DR Congo qualified via the best-third route from Group K (4 pts, +1 GD) and play in their first-ever World Cup knockout tie at senior men’s level. Sébastien Desabre has built a disciplined, well-organised side — they drew with Portugal in the group — but they have never met England at a senior international tournament and the gap in squad depth is the cleanest read on the price.
| Stat | DR Congo | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Group record | 1W 1D 1L, +1 GD (4 pts) | 3rd in Group K, through as a best-third side |
| Group results | Beat Uzbekistan 3-1; drew Portugal; lost 1-0 to Colombia | First knockout stage in their history |
| H2H all-time | First-ever meeting | First WC knockout match in DRC’s history |
| Key man | Bakambu / Epenza | Experienced forward line; physicality over flair |
Stats, source: Al Jazeera / Sports Mole / WhoScored, 30 Jun 2026.
DR Congo have no reported injuries or suspensions going into the R32. Yellow-card reset per FIFA rules — they are not at risk of any player being banned for accumulation.
Predicted XIs
| Team | Likely shape | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| England | 4-2-3-1 | Pickford; Spence, Konsa/Guéhi, Stones, T. Mitchell; Rice, Henderson; Madueke, Bellingham, Rogers; Kane |
| DR Congo | 4-3-3 | Ley Matampi; Masuaku, Mbemba, Inonga, Arthur; Mukau, Moutsoussamy, Pickel; Bongonda, Bakambu, Epenza |
Predicted XIs, source: Sports Mole / ESPN, 30 Jun 2026 — confirmed teams land ~1h before kickoff.
The knockout atmosphere
Mercedes-Benz Stadium has a retractable roof and is climate-controlled; the matchday forecast is warm and humid (high ~32°C, low ~22°C, ~27% chance of rain). Roof state to be confirmed on the day — but with a 2:00 AM AEST kickoff and a roof designed for Atlanta’s summer heat, expect the climate-controlled environment.
Our pick
- [ ] Confirm Quansah’s status and the centre-back pairing when teams drop (~1:00 AM AEST 2 Jul)
- [ ] Compare the Kane anytime price across two books (Boomerang, Rabona)
- [ ] Decide on a single vs a same-game multi before kickoff
- [ ] Set your stake and a deposit limit
The cleanest ticket: England -1 on the line (handicap) at any + money. England’s group-stage scoring spread (six goals across three games) and Tuchel’s tendency to push late in winnable games make the -1 the right expression of the gap. Kane anytime scorer is the standalone value angle — a captain in this form, still extending a national record, against a side playing on the biggest stage of their history. Pair into a same-game multi for a fairer price.
- England 1.26 clear favourites; DR Congo 14.00 longest-priced R32 side in this window.
- Tuchel unbeaten in 11 competitive games (W10 D1); Kane already England’s all-time WC scorer (11 goals), still adding to the record.
- Reece James OUT — Spence starts at right-back; Rice returning.
- Best value: Kane anytime scorer, or England -1 line.
More: full team profiles, the England team page, the Group L guide, today’s matchday tips, the live winner odds board and the knockout bracket as it forms.
